FML Prognosticating — Fall Season Week 07

Each week Jacob mines the Fantasy Movie League chatter for all the data that matters. Listen to the podcast to find out how to join our listener league and compete with other Midnight Warrirors for the coveted FML Champion coffee mug.

WEEK 07: TO KILL A MARSHALL-BIRD

It’s October, so you’ve probably been seeing black and orange everywhere. Unless you’re a Cincinatti Bengals fan (and if you are, may God have mercy on you) then that can only mean one thing: Halloween. No, not the movie we just reviewed, the actual holiday. When people star seeing skeletons and black cats, they also start seeing scary movies.

Only one other day draws in horror fans like Halloween, and that’s Friday the 13th. No, not the movie we’re never going to review, I mean when the 13th day of the month falls on a Friday. Well, this week we see an October Friday the 13th, so get ready to roll out your horror movies, even if it is a $5 million dollar Blumhouse film.

If you want to know if you should play Happy Death Day you’ll have to keep reading. It’s possible some other movie, let’s say set in the future, or in a toy ninja world, could have good enough numbers to make you play against the scary Groundhog Day knockoff. You’re going to be extra mad when you realize I don’t give an answer and also you have to read this article over and over for eternity until you achieve self-actualization or solve your own murder (whichever comes first).


OPENING THIS WEEK

  • Happy Death Day ($350 bux) – A Blumhouse film with only a 68% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, but as I said above this one is going to do really well. The trailer is strong, and the RT Audience score is pretty strong. It needs to make a steep $24.5 to get the Bonus Bar, and I think it will reach that, I just think another movie is going to hold up even better. But, I don’t think this is a bad play or a bad anchor, but I couldn’t find a lineup I liked with it that didn’t have ‘Til Death Do Us Part at the bottom.
  • The Foreigner ($143 bux) – A strong candidate for Best Performer with a low bar to cross. I’m scared, however, at the 2,500 screen count. I’d like this to be higher for a new release. Blade Runner 2049 is taking strong reviews and audience scores with 1,500 more theaters. I really want to endorse this, but I don’t think it’s in the BP running. If you do like it, go 6x The Foreigner  and 2x Kingsman.
  • Marshall ($62 bux) –  I think this movie looks really good, and I think this is a little too early in the year to get crowds out there. It has a way better price point than Victoria & Abdul, but I don’t think it earns the $4.3 million it needs to get a bonus. Unless it just fills your cineplex perfectly and uses every single dollar, don’t play this. There are better values at similar prices.

DATA DUMP

Cost RT Score RT Audience Bonus Bar Phil’s Fandango Check TC
Happy Death Day $350 68% 92%* $24.5 $403 3,149
Blade Runner 2049 $237 89% 83% $16.6 $213 4,058
The Foreigner $143 57% 97%* $10.0 $255 2,515
The Mountain Between Us $99 43% 53% $6.9 $169 3,259
IT $95 85% 86% $6.7 $108 3,176
My Little Pony: The Movie $84 55% 88 $5.9 $174 2,528
Victoria & Abdul $80 68% 71 $5.6 $461 900
Kingsman: The Golden Circle $71 50% 70% $5.0 $128 2,982
American Made $71 87% 81% $5.0 $133 3,090
The LEGO Ninjago Movie $70 53% 53% $4.9 $144 3,053
Marshall $62 85% 94%* $4.3 $330 821
Flatliners $34 04% 38% $2.4 $120 1,983
Battle of the Sexes $24 84% 76% $1.7 $115 1,394
American Assassin $9 34% 67% $0.6 $86 820
Til Death Do Us Part $7 N/A 70% $0.5 $121 N/A

 

Many films are screaming to anchor your cineplex, but I have to go with Blade Runner 2049. I originally thought this just wouldn’t do well this weekend because everybody who was craving a Blade Runner sequel was there in the first few days. Well, the more I think about it, the more I see this is a great value at $237 bux. It’s hard for me not to anchor with this one, especially when it’s still in over 4,000 theaters. Run with it and fill your screens as you see fit.

I’m running with The LEGO Ninjago Movie and American Assassin. Both are lower on the totem pole, but LEGO has an outside shot at stealing the BP bonus. It has a low bar to clear and still has 3,000 theaters. American Assassin took a big hit on screens, but the price is dirt cheap for what you get. Run with this and coast to an easy Perfect Cineplex.

With Happy Death Day landing this weekend, tell me what your favorite Blumhouse film is in the comments, or find me on Twitter @jakerg23.


It’s never too late to join in on the action! Sign up now and compete to be next weekend’s box office champion!