FML Prognosticating — Fall Season Week 04

Each week Jacob mines the Fantasy Movie League chatter for all the data that matters. Listen to the podcast to find out how to join our listener league and compete with other Midnight Warrirors for the coveted FML Champion coffee mug.

WEEK 04: WHEN WE ALL GO WHERE NINJAGO

When lots of new movies drop at once, it throws a crazy wrench in the FML lineup process. When a third of the movies are new and the anchors are probably priced too high and the fillers priced too low, you have a recipe for a “moving week”. Besides the fact that I don’t particularly trust any of these anchors, the close pricing on the low-end means I don’t foresee a single dominant lineup in the Top 500 report unless we get some really strong preview numbers.

I’m going to do my best just to lay out information and let you put your chips anywhere on the roulette wheel you feel comfortable. If you’re doing well, this might be a good week to just hedge your bets. If you’re in my spot, you might be more tempted to bet on a LEGO brand and call it a day.


OPENING THIS WEEK

  • Kingsman: The Golden Circle ($511 bux) – The original film had some unexpected great reviews and box office, so it’s no surprised that they decided to make a sequel. However, the bonus bar is at $51.1 million, and I don’t think it’s likely that this one tops $45 million. Use it as an anchor if you have to, but know that it’s not walking away with the Best Performer bonus.
  • The LEGO Ninjago Movie ($389 bux) – The lone new kids movie of the month is from the red-hot Lego franchise. This spinoff, however, doesn’t have the Batman on the poster. There’s no chance it does caped crusader numbers, but this could reach the bonus bar of $38.9. If I have to bet on a new movie as an anchor, this is clearly the one.
  • Friend Request ($66 bux) – This is a bomb in the making and a must-avoid. If it wasn’t enough that the movie looks awful, it’s up against a clowny juggernaut hiding in sewer drains. Just unfriend this movie altogether.
  • Brad’s Status ($22 bux) – This movie is working off of solid Rotten Tomatoes numbers, but I think it’s limited by the 453 theater count. Also, anecdotally, I haven’t seen a single ad for this one and locally it doesn’t have all day screenings. If those theater counts are fool’s gold because it’s splitting time with some kid’s movie holdover, you’ll want to lay off of this unless you really have exactly $22 to fill out the last screen.
  • Battle of the Sexes ($8 bux) – The best reviewed movie in theaters right now, but it’s on a measly 21 screens. As much as you may think this movie looks good and fun, this isn’t the week for it. If you think it can make $1,501 per screening on average, by all means play it and hope for a miracle Best Picture bonus, but otherwise I think we all have to avoid it, which really is a shame.

DATA DUMP

RT Score RT Audience Bonus Bar Phil’s Fandango Check TC
Kingsman: The Golden Circle $511 49% 99%* 51.1 $582 4,003
The LEGO Ninjago Movie $389 47% 89%* 38.9 $472 4,047
IT $352 85% 87% 35.2 $421 4,007
American Assassin $68 35% 70% 6.8 $151 3,154
Friend Request $66 29% 76%* 6.6 $162 2,569
mother! $34 67% 43% 3.4 $106 2,368
Home Again $32 32% 55% 3.2 $100 2,685
Brad’s Status $22 86% 84% 2.2 $322 453
The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19 38% 71% 1.9 $95 2,037
Wind River $15 86% 92% 1.5 $112 1,431
Leap! $13 35% 64% 1.3 $107 1,301
Annabelle: Creation $12 68% 71% 1.2 $236 682
Spider-Man: Homecoming $11 92% 89% 1.1 $122 1,006
Battle of the Sexes $8 87% 94%* 0.8 $1,501 21
Dunkirk $7 93% 82% 0.7 $110 678

So where does this all leave us? This is tough for me, because I’m going to have to bank on some movies I don’t trust just due to the bizarre pricing. I am not going to hedge or I’d just find a lineup where I spend all my bux and play the spread, anchoring with Kingsmen and LEGO. You have about 6 different filler options to go with from there.

I have to go with The LEGO Ninjago Movie if for no other reason than kids are begging for a new movie and the price is right. I’m filling in with 6 screens of mother! for a very weird reason. This movie may have awful reviews, but it has a really weird bizarre buzz going along with it too. Any press is better than no press, and so I’m banking on the people who like watching train wrecks to show up and push this one over the edge.

Think I missed this week? Want to tell me why Friend Request is actually a must see movie? Just hit me up on Twitter @jakerg23.


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