Each week Jacob recaps the weekend box office and the winners and losers in the Midnight Warrior Fantasy Movie League.
WEEK 11 BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN
Let’s get this out in the open. I’m a fan of hard workers, not lazy people who don’t even bother to fill out a whole cineplex. Really it only takes 8 clicks to set a lineup, and this week we’re going to AWARD people who only picked 7 movies with the Perfect Cineplex? If I weren’t so competitive I would boycott this site in a heartbeat. Except I wouldn’t because this is one of the highlights of my week now.
Trolls may anchor this lazy-man cineplex, but we can all see Hacksaw Ridge is doing the heavy lifting here. Mix a little bit of Veteran’s Day synergy with a whole lot of positive audience and critic scores, and you get a top performer bonus 6 times over in the Perfect Cineplex. Having seen it myself, I feel like this movie will play out a lot like American Sniper, so look for it to make appearances in or near top cineplexes possibly into 2017. As for the next few weeks, my gut tells me that this will be a little overpriced. Long legs are good, but the mid-term seems to be when the value goes down for movies like this.
Now let’s check in on the Midnight Warrior league. I’m not in the business of calling out our listeners and readers, but I wish you all listened to me as well as Nic Cage’s MovieHouse & Eatery did this week. He was the only cineplex to follow my prediction for week 11. And where did it land him? Squarely in 4th place. I really don’t feel sorry for the 11 people he beat because the answer was right in front of you! My favorite play of the week, however, was No Country For Old Movies who just went simple and played 8 Hacksaws for the simplest 5th place finish ever, and only about $2.5 million out of first.
Once again, Film School Dropout lands on top, this time tied with School of Rock. These two are in a tight race for first place overall in our post-Week 3 Fall 16 season, and they obviously think a lot alike. It’ll be interesting to see what they pick in week 12 and if either goes for a risky curveball to gain ground. In case you’re wondering, I’m in third place and I’m going to be getting pretty risky when it comes to setting my lineup. Not Billy Lynn risky. Nobody should be that risky this week.
WEEK 12 PREDICTIONS
Remember that feeling when Dr. Strange came in above $800 bux and we all had to decide if we trusted it or not? Well, start feeling it again, because Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them is at a fantastical $864 this week. This will be an odd bird because, while being a Harry Potter film, it is missing those two magic words from the title. Will this be a preview for how Rouge One is received later this year? My gut is that this movie does $86-$90 million, far from “best performer” territory.
I want to pick Hacksaw Ridge because it has everything I look for when setting my lineup. It has good word of mouth, great legs, and great comps. That being said, can it manage to only drop 30% in gross box office from week 11 to week 12? If it dips to 40% of last week’s gross or worse, then FML has priced it to be about average in $/bux. Don’t worry, it’s not time to call for the medic on this one. Just wait because Hacksaw Ridge is going to pair very nicely with Rogue One soon enough.
So what do we do? I think we take a long jolly look at Almost Christmas. Right now I’m thinking it’s going to be in the $9-$10 million range. Load up with as many as you can get, pair it with Trolls. I think the tall-haired 90’s revival will stay strong with no new contenders for young viewers. Yes, it will have some overlap with Fantastic Beasts, but this trends even younger and may catch some overflow from sold out screenings of the Redmayne flick.
The only thing that’s for sure right now is that I will be tweeting at 10:48 on Friday with a new lineup as more info becomes available. Be sure to follow me @jakerg23 to see what I really play.