FML Prognosticating — Fall Season Week 11

Each week Jacob mines the Fantasy Movie League chatter for all the data that matters. Listen to the podcast to find out how to join our listener league and compete with other Midnight Warriors for the coveted FML Champion coffee mug.

WEEK 11: STILL THOR AFTER LAST WEEK

Thor: Ragnarok has been out for about a week stateside, and it has already crossed over $500 million in total gross. So far, the film is beating Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 and Doctor Strange in offshore markets according to Deadline, and it’s on track to make about another $60 million for FML purposes this weekend. Yet in the strange world of FML, this wasn’t enough last weekend to overcome tiny little Geostorm.

Yes, the god of thunder lost out to a colossal flop about weather control and space and Gerard Butler or something. Many people did get solid performances from going with Thor, but you can never underestimate the lower priced films and what a solid performance can do at those low prices.

Luckily (or unluckily) we have 11 low priced films all under $35 bux. This means you have a ton of options to fill out your cineplex, but you have to start with picking an anchor. Let’s start by looking at the two new anchors this week.

 


OPENING THIS WEEK

  • Murder on the Orient Express ($284 bux) – There goes Johnny Depp being sorta weird again. Not super weird, but still weird. The good news is that I’m always happy to see Kenneth Branagh directing. If you haven’t seen it, stop reading this and go watch Henry V and then Hamlet. He gives some of the best actor/director performances this side of Citizen Kane. I would have written this movie off, but the numbers are really good on Rotten Tomatoes audience meter. The theater count is there, and people do love to see adaptations. I’ll give this a slight recommend.
  • Daddy’s Home 2 ($266 bux) – The trailer is funny, and the first movie outperformed its expectations. Will Ferrel and Mark Whalburg are a comedy force, as evidenced in The Other Guys. I know a lot of people who shared this trailer around just because it was so damn funny. It seems like comedies are rarely relevant for FML, but this one makes a solid shot at a BP, and it has a relatively low bar to cross. Look for this to be in the most played cineplex 3 times.

DATA DUMP

Cost RT Score RT Audience Bonus Bar Phil’s Fandango Check TC
Thor: Ragnarok $659 93% 90% $65.9 $574 4,080
Murder on the Orient Express $284 64% 98% $28.4 $437 3,341
Daddy’s Home 2 $266 N/A 94% $26.6 $352 3,575
A Bad Moms Christmas $105 29% 53% $10.5 $182 3,615
Jigsaw $34 32% 93% $3.4 $105 2,651
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $25 60% 42% $2.5 $124 1,900
Geostorm $19 14% 43% $1.9 $121 N/A
Thank You for Your Service $18 77% 77% $1.8 $239 1,347
Happy Death Day $16 71% 67% $1.6 $94 1,561
Blade Runner 2049 $14 88% 81% $1.4 $184 N/A
Only the Brave $13 90% 93% $1.3 $154 1,207
Victoria & Abdul $10 66% 72% $1.0 $147 640
The Foreigner $9 59% 76% $0.9 $118 737
IT $6 85% 85% $0.6 $80 281
Suburbicon $6 26% 24% $0.6 $2,627 N/A

 

So where does that leave us? This week I’m not really sure. If you can pick the Best Picture winner, absolutely go with Thor Daddy’s Home / as many as you can play of the BP. If you’re making me pick a BP from the fillers, I’m going with Blade Runner 2049. That being said, I don’t think I can suggest that lineup.

I think Daddy’s Home 2 runs away with the bonus this week, and you just play whatever crappy movies you can to fill out the cineplex. I’ll be going with A Bad Moms Christmas since maybe families will pair these together or watch them as a double feature. Then I’m playing 3x Boo 2 since the price is right, and that pesky dumb failure Geostorm. It doesn’t have a theater count at the time of publishing, but I think its fair to assume it will still do just fine. Well, for FML. In real life, it will still be a massive disappointment.

Think my lineup will be a bigger flop than Geostorm? Use all 280 character to tell me why on Twitter @jakerg23.


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