Week 03 FML Recap — Summer Season

Each week Jacob recaps the weekend box office and the winners and losers in the Midnight Warrior Fantasy Movie League.

 

WEEK 03 BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN

This was almost a VERY strange week. A film that didn’t appear in FMLNerd’s Top 500 Report‘s 5 most popular lineups AT ALL played a strong contender for this week’s Best Performer bonus. In case you didn’t know, that film was 47 Meters Down. I don’t look for it to be in contention this week due to abysmal audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes mixed with a bad Tomatometer score in general.

However, there must be something about Father’s Day that brings out a love of boat films. The other wet bandit this week was Pirates of the Caribbean: Some Subtitle That’s Impossible To Remember. This one sank the competition by posting $126.3K/bux by making $9 million in earnings against a tough crowded field.

Rounding out the Perfect Cineplex was the superhero with some incredible legs (I mean at the box office, geesh). Yes, Wonder Woman only fell -29.5% this weekend, which is a very strong hold. I’m not sure if the red, whiteyellow, and blue lady holds strong over the most patriotic of holidays, but I doubt she’ll be farther than a Lasso of Truth’s throw from the Best Performer bonus.

As for the Midnight Warrior league, it was far from business as usual. Cineplex Nic Cage Comes At Night took our top spot this week, posting $93 million on a Wonder Woman / 4x 47 Meters Down / 3x It Comes at Night.  This marks his Nic Cage’s first win of the season and placed him far above our perennial top dogs.

This wasn’t enough to dethrone them, however, as School of Rock once again holds down our top spot, followed by I Smell Cineplex and Candy. These former league champions always manage to float to the top of the competition, so congrats to them. I, however, am not even on the first page of the standings, and I’m about $75 million out of first place, which is terrible because there have only been 3 weeks and I’m only at 75% of the gross of the league champion. Guess I should start taking my own advice from these articles and start making some high-risk plays to gain ground.


WEEK 03 PREDICTIONS

So, we have an interesting weekend due to July the 4th falling on a Tuesday and being totally out of the running for this weekend. Plus, the biggest release of the week is dropping on Thursday, taking away some of its earnings. Let’s break down each of the releases here.

  • Transformers: The Last Knight ($560) – The Thursday numbers for this one makes it look like a bomb. Michael Bay may have stuck around for one too many Transformers movies, although other would argue he was there for 4 too many. Don’t play this one as your anchor. That being said, do you think Shia Labeouf will show up in this film? More importantly, do you think he wants to be my best friend?
  • Beatriz at Dinner ($17) – This is a tempting one. In 491 theaters and at a bargain basement price, it looks to grow from the $702k it made the last weekend. It hopes to parlay this 500% screen increase into a Best Performer bonus. It’s certainly possible since the Fandango check shows it at $187/show, but it still needs to beat 20th Century Women‘s $165/show take.
  • Tubelight ($34) – This Bollywood movie that crossed the pond is going to be a non-contender due to its measly 342 theaters. The film itself looks very interesting, but I don’t think it will get the massive per theater average it would take to make an impact on this week. Even at its price range, the massive bomb Rough Night is still in 3,162 theaters for only $5 more. I don’t think you should screen this one.

Well, unless you can find a good lineup that maximizes your screens of Beatriz at Dinner, I say you bank on the legs of Gal Godot (this time I mean actual legs) and the women of Rough Night to take you to the promised land. Play your choice of low-end filler, but here I have It Comes at Night and Book of HenryGo see something crazy. just because those are the two bottom barrel films I’m most likely to end up at on Saturday morning for $5 at AMC. Oh yeah, their first film of the day is $5.

Please show me a lineup where Beatriz is carrying the load, or ask me to put together my best version of that lineup via Twitter… follow me @jakerg23.


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