Week 02 FML Recap — Summer Season

Each week Jacob recaps the weekend box office and the winners and losers in the Midnight Warrior Fantasy Movie League.

 

WEEK 02 BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN

Normally, “Box Office Breakdown” is when I break down what happened the previous week. This week it’s a literal box office breakdown as I very clearly have fallen off the deep end of FML. After finishing right outside of the top 100 last season, I have fallen to 11,156th this season. After my disastrous Week 01, I took off for the West Coast to clear my head. Well, I must have cleared it too much, because when I quickly set my lineup from a casino in Washington State, apparently I wasn’t prepared at all. I should be asking you guys what the hell happened last week.

The best I can tell is that Wonder Woman is the unstoppable beast that everybody knew she would be… except for me, who has not started her once over these two weeks. Then, 5 screens of the evergreen Guardians of the Galaxy held strong. Fill out the rest with a fairly weak Alien: Covenant and Diary of a Wimpy Kid and you’ve got a perfect cineplex that nobody saw coming (except for the 48 players who saw it coming).

As for our Midnight Warriors listener league, we did not have one of the 48 people with psychic abilities. We did, however, have a tie for first between I’m not a regular mom, I’m a cool mom! and Hollywood Video. They both played the perfect cineplex except they went with Best of the Rest instead ofWimpy Kid for their last filler. I’m starting to name-check Cool Mom! a lot on this podcast, so it looks like we may have a new contender for the top spot this season.

But, as always, we have Lacy back on top with her now-pronounceable cineplex:  I Smell Cineplex and Candy. She is followed closely by the never-changing School of Rock. I am in twelfthplaceidon’twanttotalkaboutitleavemealone.


WEEK 02 PREDICTIONS

This week we have a load of new films to pick from, so let’s break them all down. Hopefully, you learn something, and I put a little more thought into my lineup than I did while convincing myself that morning blackjack was a good idea. (Note: I won $16 bucks that morning so who’s the real winner here?)

  • Cars 3 ($719) – We all know this Disney feature is going to rule the box office this weekend, but the question is “by how much?” Well, if you think it’s just going to do some monstrous numbers, you throw it out there. The floor is a solid $60 million, but my guess is it finishes north of that. The worst part is that tonight’s preview numbers will mean almost nothing since it’s a kid’s movie and nobody is taking their 8-year-old to a 10 pm preview screening of a movie about talking cars.
  • All Eyez on Me ($327) – This price seems a little bit high for me. Unless this movie has a twist that the real Tupac is alive and in the film and that leaks before lock time on Friday, I doubt this has enough to make a play for Best Performer. That being said, this trailer is compelling to somebody who both doesn’t know a lot about Tupac but also writes a weekly FML article, so this may have a little wider appeal than I’m expecting. Play at your own risk.
  • Rough Night ($243) – This one has an embargo on reviews (never good) and is dropping on Father’s Day weekend. Moms will be seeing a movie with dad or taking the kids to Cars 3. The target demo is probably home with dad. I just don’t see this even meeting its predictions for this week. Only play it if you have to fill something out at the top of your lineup (like I’m doing).
  • 47 Meters Down ($105) – This looks like the sleeper pick to me. After watching the trailer, I’m thinking this will be the horror movie people were actually waiting for as It Comes at Night let everybody down (with some potentially shady marketing by A24). This thing looks old-school terrifying, and with a low low $246/show in 2,300 theaters for $105 bux, I think this is the home run of the week.
  • The Book of Henry ($31) – At 579 theaters, we’re looking at a potential value play. After watching it, I’m not going to be the one trusting it this week. There isn’t quite enough buzz to get the $323/show to get this Best Performer bonus. Rotten Tomatoes has it at 28% fresh, and for a small movie that is pretty much the death knell.

So, I’m going to be the guy deep diving with a lineup I’m calling 329 Meters Down. Play 7x 47 Meters Down, and fill it in with Rough Night unless you really have a lot of faith in something else or literally no faith in Rough Night. It’s up to you.

If you’re just never going to listen to my advice again, please tell me all about it in public on Twitter @jakerg23.


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