Week 12 FML Recap — Spring Season

Each week Jacob recaps the weekend box office and the winners and losers in the Midnight Warrior Fantasy Movie League.

 

WEEK 12 BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN

What a crazy close season this has been. I somehow find myself at 215th after some really awful weeks, but, according to a recent FML post, being in the top 500 this season puts you only about 4.98% of total box office value away from being in first place. One year ago, that same amount from the first place cineplex would have you almost cracking the top 100. This is just a highly competitive season, and not only in our league.

This week was one of the head-scratcher weeks where you have to pick some bottom of the barrel fillers and run with them. Hopefully, you trusted in the power of The Rock and played a whole bunch of Fate of the Furious. The real question with this film isn’t about how it keeps making money, but how will it fare next week when Dwayne Johnson anchors another major release in Baywatch (but we’ll cover that later).

At the top is the no-surprise anchor Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2. I say no surprise because I wasn’t one of the people who put a lot of faith in Alien: Covenant. I, for some inexplicable reason, played it anyway, and it only beat the discount Guardians by about $1.5 million at the box office. Yes, it was number one for the week, but that’s nothing to be too proud of when you barely beat the 3rd weekend of another space movie.

Finally, Everything Everything exceeded expectations, coming in at $11.7 million. It only ended up at a 48% on the Tomatometer, but that didn’t stop the book readers from flocking to see this adaptation. We’ll have to see if it can survive out in cineplexes this weekend, or if it should stay locked inside far away from your lineups.

As for the War Starts at Midnight league, Madison Sandwich Madness continues his domination of our league, riding a less-than-stellar Alien / 7x Boss Baby lineup to a big tie for 24th in our league, but staying out of reach of the nearest competitor Uldaddy’s Home by a mere $1 million on the season. Right now, I’m pulling for Uldaddy’s Home so I can whip out a killer Yondu pun next week.

In our listener league, Lacy is so very close to getting her second title mug, but my cineplex is only $7 million out of first place. On a personal note, this means I’m at my most stressed on researching lineups this week. If I keep my head on straight and not be influenced by things like women in swimsuits, I can pass her cineplex and start Instagramming pictures of myself sipping out of that clean white championship mug…


WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS

It’s time for the last week of the season, and boy is this a tough one. Another “do you trust the anchor” week, plus an extra day of box office to deal with. With three new movies, what one do you trust? Let me run down the new releases for you.

  • Pirates of the Carribean:  Dead Men Tell No Tales ($646) – I’ve seen the trailer and I’ve tried to work the numbers, but I don’t see this bomb-in-the-making beating its expectation with just 30% fresh reviews. Sure, I could be wrong, but unless you really believe in one of the low-cost options snagging the BP bonus, I’d avoid this one. But, then again, I’m very much of the opinion that this franchise is dead. We’ll see when America votes with its wallets this weekend.
  • Baywatch ($334) – Alexandra Daddario is in this film. Never underestimate an actress at her peak hotness in a bikini movie. Supposedly this film also features The Rock and Zac Efron, but I watched the trailer and saw the poster and really I only saw one person. In case you think this is a dumb reason to bank on a movie, I’m including a picture, and not just as an excuse to google pictures of Alexandra Daddario. 
  • Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer ($4) – The trailer for this one left me with almost no interest in the film, but it is sitting at 87% fresh and is landing in 324 cineplexes. For comparison, Lowriders costs $6 and is in 334. Also, this film has actually been out for 6 weekends, but this is its first FML appearance. Last weekend it made $565k in 373 theaters. I can’t see this being worthwhile, but the price is so low. By some back of the envelope math, if this only drops 40% this week, it would have nearly the same value as Pirates making $72 million. Personally, I’m staying away.

So, that leaves us with some tough choices. I’m partial to Fate of the Furious acting as the best of the fillers. Others are betting on How to be a Latin Lover having a strong holiday weekend based on comps of other Latino films having strong holiday performances.

Anyway, I’m playing Daddario on two screens for my anchor. I think people are looking for a beach party on Memorial Day, not a weird CG gray pirate-fest. Or they’re looking to look at Alexandra Daddario.

Ready to rake me over the coals for sexism? Go for it via Twitter @jakerg23.


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