FML Recap — Spring Season: Week 03

Each week Jacob recaps the weekend box office and the winners and losers in the Midnight Warrior Fantasy Movie League.

 

WEEK 03 BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN

Week 03 went about as poorly for me as it did for every movie not named Beauty and the Beast. This film came out swinging and posted the 6th biggest domestic release of all time, going past $150 million. Despite mediocre rotten tomatoes reviews, look for this one to hold on for a while, especially with an 86% audience score. Even yours truly will be spending $20 to see this picture this weekend, so I’ll report back when it takes BP again next week.

Beauty and the Beast did so well that it’s 3 day splits took up 3 of the top 4 $/bux value this week, with #3 going to The Belko Experiment. It couldn’t beat out Saturday or Sunday of Beauty, but it did post a very respectable $125.4K/bux. This one has even worse RT scores, with both reviews and audience score coming in below 50%. This isn’t promising for the film, but it’s priced at a value this week, so it’s something to play around with.

Logan popped his claws for the first time this FML season, earning a spot in the PC with over $17 million at the box office. I still recommend you see this film, but I think the fanboys have all gone, and won’t be going back for round two. If you have seen it, read the much different Old Man Logan comic. It’s got all the road film goodness, with a dash of Unforgiven thrown in for good measure.

As for our league, I’m not even posting the list of all 20 players how got the perfect cineplex. I banked on the Beauty and the Beast Friday, which landed me in the bottom 3 of the week. It has to be the worst cineplex ever anchored with 2x  a #4 value screen ever. This puts me about $25 million out of first place behind Uldaddy’s Home.

Our league is so competitive this year that 15 players are within $900k of 1st place right now. This really still is anybody’s game… well, except mine. It’s definitely not my game this season.


WEEK 03 PREDICTIONS

This week is looking a lot like last week, with the exception of that big Megazord hulking in the corner. Let’s start off as always by breaking down my thoughts on each of the new releases.

  • Power Rangers ($379) – I’m not sure what to think about this film. First, I don’t think it’s going to beat Beauty and the Beast in value. For one, I managed to not see the trailer until today, which doesn’t mean great things. On the other hand, its trailer is doing great in views. It’s possible I”m just not in the right demographic for this one. Play it with caution.
  • Life ($205) – This film’s trailer looked interesting, but the price feels too high. I did get to see this trailer many times recently as they’re showing it before a lot of films. We’re looking at over 3,000 screens, and we’re getting good word of mouth. 72% fresh at RT means this might sneak in as a cheap anchor.
  • CHiPS ($114) – I smell a bomb. We don’t have any preview reviews, and that always means bad things. Also, the dropping long range forecast means you should stay away. Even though you could have 8x of this new release, you have to know that’s not a smart play. If FML wanted to dare us, they should have gone lower in their price.
  • Wilson ($8) – As fun as this movie looks, it’s in too limited of a release to play into FML this week. Even at $8, it’s not going to make what John Wick 2 will at $6. Hands off!

So, with all that being said, I’m betting on Kong: Skull Island for BP. It’s been out a few weeks, but I still think it has some big hairy legs, especially with a 78% RT score. Then you’re just looking at what to close out with. I like Logan and The Shack. It’s a little bit of a hedge since one of those two could steal PC with a good performance, but otherwise, they’re just reliable for a few million in gross.

You think you have a better plan than me? Go ahead and tell me on Twitter @jakerg23.


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