Each week Jacob recaps the weekend box office and the winners and losers in the Midnight Warrior Fantasy Movie League.
WEEK 12 BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN
Chris called it. I didn’t. This week’s perfect cineplex was the very simple 1 screen of Fantastic Beasts and 7 screens of Moonlight. The worst part? That I’ve been calling it for weeks. “If Moonlight is over 350 theaters, it’s a shoe-in for best performer,” he said repeatedly. Then, when it breaks that it would top 700 screens I get cold feet and bail. Well, the problem wasn’t with Moonlight, it was with the Harry Potter spin-off.
I knew that Fantastic Beasts didn’t have the steam of its big brother movie. I did the research, read reviews, and put my finger on the pulse of the American movie-going public. (Ok, so I really asked around to my biggest Harry Potter nerd friends.) Mix that with bad early Thursday preview numbers and I switched to 4x Trolls, 1x Arrival, and 3x Moonlight. See? I still belived a little big.
The actual worst part is that I wasn’t even wrong about Fantastic Beasts. It underperformed, yet somehow was still the best value even with a cost north of $800 bux. Yet this weekend showed heavy losses across the board compared with the Veteran’s Day haul that it didn’t even matter. If anybody had some crow I think it’s time I tried some.
In our Midnight Warrior league, we have our first tie for first place ever, and two-thirds of the tie is in no way surprising. Season leaders Film School Dropout and School of Rock played the same screen that Chris aka Tell Mr. Royal This is the Pagoda predicted on the podcast. Chris, the next time you get insider knowledge on the Perfect Cineplex, just keep it to yourself.
Going into the final week of the season, the real contenders for first place are Film School Dropout and School of Rock. How will they handle this pressure? Will Dropout go for a hedged play to save her victory, or strive to find the Perfect Cineplex? Will School of Rock play a safe solid play, or will he risk it all for a taste of that Midnight Warrior gold? Will my own cineplex pass $1 billion dollars for the season? I sure hope so, because I really would like to keep all my readers if possible.
WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS
Let’s think back on the difficult parts of this season. Is it the weeks where there these $800 bux monsters sitting out there daring you to pick them? Maybe it’s the weeks with lots of strong holdovers all at enticing prices? Or is it those weeks where you don’t have any strong contenders at all, leaving you with a number of paths to go down?
This week has all of those, plus two more new curveballs for us. First, this week scores for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, even though many films are opening Wednesday due to the real monster: Thanksgiving. Also, we’re nearing awards season so we’re stuck trying to guess how films like Moonlight, Bleed for This, Loving, Rules Don’t Apply, and even Allied will compete against the mainest of mainstream: a Marvel film, a Harry Potter film, a Disney new release, and a historical war film with super-legs (Hacksaw Ridge).
I can’t even justify any single cineplex this week. Not one. There is about a 10-way tie in my brain right now, so I’m just going to pick one and explain it to you. First, let’s assume Fantastic Beasts holds strong since there isn’t much competition there and it stands at 85% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. Next, we guess that Hacksaw Ridge only takes a small hit. Let’s say it’s a holiday bump since you want to see something with your dad while you’re in town, and that by far is the best fit. Then, we need to top it off with something, and it’s a total toss-up, so we go with the great reviews and solid audience score of Edge of Seventeen.
There is only one thing I am sure of this week: the above will not be the perfect cineplex, as there’s no way I’m that lucky or that good. Find out what I’ll actually play at 10:55am on Friday morning by following me on Twitter at jakerg23.